The Brookings Institution this past weekend held its annual Saban Forum to discuss the Israeli-United States relationship and shed light on how decision makers and the media view the state of world affairs, particularly in the Middle East.
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the forum via video link and focused directly on Iran and its threat to Israel and the region. He reflected on recent references by Saudi crown prince Mohammad bin Salman comparing the Iran regime to that of the Nazis. While Netanyahu noted that there are some distinct differences between the two, he did say both regimes share common goals: ruthless tyranny and Jewish annihilation.
“When tyrants call for the destruction of my people, I believe them,” Netanyahu said. “So let me reiterate Israel’s policy: We will not allow a regime hellbent on the annihilation of the Jewish state to acquire nuclear weapons; we will not allow that regime to entrench itself militarily in Syria as it seeks to do for the expressed purpose of eradicating our state.”
While saying he’s sure no one at the forum wants to see a nuclear-armed Iran, he believes the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—known as the “Iran deal” will lead to the Iranians acquiring a nuclear arsenal within a decade.
“President Trump has created an opportunity to fix the great flaws of the JCPOA,” Netanyahu added. “I urge you in the policy community to help decision makers in the capitals of Europe and Capitol Hill to take advantage of this opportunity.”
Former Israel Prime Minister Ehud Barak discussed Iran as well, particularly focusing on the difficulty convincing colleagues to act militarily in the early years to stop the Iranian nuclear program. He said he was sorry they couldn’t, but it can get too late to make such a move, and it probably would have delayed them only a short time.
“I want to remind all of you that when we attacked the Iraqi reactor near Baghdad, we could not assume that we are delaying them by more than three years, because they can easily approach the same French company who built the reactor, tell them now you will get 50 percent premium for the risk, build it again within three years, [it would] pose the same situation,” Barak said.
He said, however, he hopes things happening in North Korea will give people pause about what could happen in Iran.
When asked about changing his mind on the JCPOA by moderator Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic suggesting he had become a dove on the subject, Barak said he hasn’t. He said he tells people he has mixed feelings about it. “The deal is a bad deal,” Barak said. “You know what is mixed feelings? It is when your mother in law takes your new BMW and drives it over the cliff.”
At a forum focused on Saudi Arabia, New York Times foreign affairs columnist Thomas Friedman noted the roots of what is unfolding in the Middle East now are planted in 1979. It was a year that saw the takeover of the Great Mosque of Mecca by Sunni radicals, the Iranian Revolution, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and the Three-Mile Island nuclear accident, which he said made the country more dependent on foreign oil. Particularly the takeover of the mosque, he said was a shock to the Saudi system.
“In response to that shock, they basically, the Saudi ruling family, took Islam on a right turn that we’ve been living with to today,” Friedman said. “They essentially banned fun in Saudi Arabia—banned music and empowered the clerics to impose a strict, puritanical, religious regime on the country, that at the time was on a liberalizing track.”
He addressed the Iranian Revolution as well.
“The Iranian revolution spawned a Shia Islamic fundamentalist government that was then in competition with a Saudi fundamentalist government, and empowered by higher oil prices, fundamentally changed the face of Islam,” Friedman said. “And it ended up in 9/11.”
In Afghanistan, he said that supporting Islamic jihadists against the Soviets was a “wrong turn.”
Back in Saudi Arabia, Friedman said that they occasionally “arrest bad guys” but it often comes up short.
“We have never had a Saudi leader since 1979 who was ready to fight the war of ideas,” Friedman said. “We don’t have a war with Islam; there’s a war within Islam, and basically there was no one fighting on our side.”
Friedman said he is hopeful about some of the recent moves the Saudi crown prince has made, and he said that the prince, in a recent interview, noted that he was restoring, not reforming Islam.
While pleased by some of the reform movements of bin Salman, Friedman insisted that the Saudis need a “coach” to help them through he process, and his confidence in current U.S. leadership is quite low. He went so far as saying he wouldn’t trust Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to coach a “pee wee football team,” and has little confidence in Trump as well.
“Oh, if only Jim Baker were secretary of state today, someone who could say to [bin Salman] what he used to say to Bandar [bin Sultan], which is ‘Sit your royal ass down here, and I’m going to have a talk with you.’”
Brookings Senior Fellow Bruce Riedel, author of the recent Kings and Presidents joined Friedman and noted that the relationship with Saudi Arabia on the surface is better than ever, but he discounted Trump’s visit to Riyadh in May. “They played him like a fiddle,” Riedel said. “If you look a little bit more closely, the relationship’s got some serious problems.”
Riedel noted the 98 to 0 vote in the Senate in 2016 that allows families to sue the Saudi government for its involvement in 9/11.
“I think there’s a reasonable chance that a judge will find against the Saudis, in which case there will be a massive economic penalty against Saudi Arabia,” Riedel said. He was also critical of Saudi Arabia’s involvement in the Yemen war, which he called a fiasco.
“There’s a contradiction between the crown prince’s commitment to reform and change and his foreign policy,” Riedel said. “His foreign policy is very un-Saudi; he doesn’t write checks; he intervenes. He tries to use Saudi military force to affect change—most notably in Yemen—and it’s not working.”
Those are just some of the highlights of the three-day event at Brookings, which included Middle East experts and commentators from all over the political spectrum. Other featured speakers included Brookings Institution President John Allen, Haim Saban, charman of the Saban Forum, news anchor Yonit Levi, and Jared Kushner, senior adviser to Trump. The forum is available for viewing on the Brookings Institution website.
© 2017 Homeland411