Pictures of President Moon Jae-In of South Korea and Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Un of North Korea meeting and embracing on April 27 gave some people hope. Possibly, the planned high-level talks between Kim and President Trump could lead to the official end of hostilities between the two countries – or at least to a dramatic lessening of tensions.
The meeting between Moon and Kim and the scheduled summit between Trump and Kim are unprecedented since the Korean War ended in an armistice in 1953. North Korea’s release of three Korean-American hostages on May 9 also increased that optimism. While there are reasons for hope, history shows that there is also reason for the U.S. to be cautious, even if an agreement is reached.
US Faces Historic Opportunity to Reduce Threat of War with North Korea
The U.S. is faced with what could be an historic opportunity to reduce the threat of war with North Korea. However, success is far from certain and the stakes are high. Just this week, North Korea threatened to call off the summit if Trump insisted on unilateral disarmament.
There are at least two ways that negotiations could fail. First, they could break down, resulting in no agreement. Second, they could produce an agreement that gives the illusion of success, but does not include adequate verification and enforcement provisions.
History of Negotiations and Agreements Between North Korea and Other Countries
It is instructive to review the history of North Korea’s negotiations and agreements with other countries, especially with respect to the development of nuclear weapons.
From 1985 to 2008, North Korea agreed:
- Not to pursue nuclear weapons technology
- To stop developing nuclear weapons technology
- To give up the nuclear technology it had already developed (it had agreed to this concession on at least six separate occasions)
Continue reading here.