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Strategic Deterrence Choices Could Be Syria’s Downfall

March 28, 2018
By William Tucker—In Homeland Security

Copyright: rasoul2015/Depositphotos.com

In September 2007, four military aircraft targeted and destroyed a nuclear facility deep in the Syrian desert. There was never any doubt as to the raiding party’s identity, but only now has Israel formally acknowledged its role in the so-called “Secret Security Affair.”

International media openly reported the events at the time. However, many details were censored in Israel. The censorship didn’t matter much, because numerous Israeli media outlets ran stories on intelligence operations that were part of the overall raid.

Those stories included the hack of a Syrian government official’s computer while he was visiting the U.K. and the mysterious death of the Syrian general who headed the short-lived nuclear program. Furthermore, the George W. Bush administration briefed Congress on the raid and made public some of the pertinent U.S. intelligence.

In the context of the Syrian civil war, it would seem that this bit of history is irrelevant and not worth mentioning. But the rationale behind the Syrian nuclear pursuit and the Israeli raid is still prescient. Israel’s decision to disclose the details of the operation now is not without good reason.

Major Powers Vying for Control of Middle East

The Syrian civil war has taken on a new dynamic in which major powers are vying for lasting influence. Currently, Iran has the stronger hand in Syria, while Russia and the U.S. have the more capable military forces.

The Assad regime has survived so far, even if it is under more foreign control than in years past. As a result, the Israeli-Syrian détente that existed before the civil war began seven years ago is no longer reliable. The large Iranian military presence in Syria, along with the recent Turkish invasion, has profoundly changed the situation.

Continue reading here.

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