Syria Withdrawal and Impact on U.S. and Allies

A mere six days after President Donald Trump announced the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria, Israel initiated an air strike near Damascus that targeted Iranian and Hezbollah missile locations. Whether Trump’s announcement played any role in the Israeli decision to strike the missile storage site is unknown.

Although Israel has struck military targets in Syria before, it is hard to ignore the timing of this latest strike. U.S. allies were caught off guard by the President’s announcement that he was withdrawing U.S. forces from Syria and his declaration that the Islamic State was defeated. It is conceivable that Israel felt compelled to increase its operational tempo amid the potential loss of a U.S. presence.

But on December 31, Trump claimed that the U.S. withdrawal would occur more slowly than he had previously announced just two weeks earlier. The change in the timeline may be the result of Trump’s allies in Congress expressing concern over a potential resurgence of the Islamic State. Also, the U.S.-allied Kurdish forces would find themselves in Turkey’s cross hairs.

However, Trump made no mention of removing U.S. forces in neighboring Iraq, perhaps thinking he might have to send troops back into Syria if the situation warranted. This line of thinking is speculation, of course, but with the U.S. wanting to realign its strategic posture in the Middle East and elsewhere, Trump’s troop decisions make some sense.

Middle East Interests

U.S. interests in the Middle East once centered largely on the continuance of commerce, particularly oil. America’s large navy could keep the sea lanes open, but ground-based issues were another matter.